The reason I asked is if the front bar is free, then my explanation below is makes sense.
I started to dig into the fee body diagrams and attempt to calculate all of the vectors and moments. You would have to write some equation that calculated the one force as a function of the other force. And the angles and leverage points would also be a function of the force. But those Engineering courses were 20 to 25 years ago and as I opened up a text book, I realized why I hated that class and came to the realization that I am too lazy to teach it to myself again. All those dang forces hurt my head. It is just easier to think of each hitches position relative to each other, and make the assumption that if they travel the same speed with equal amounts of pull, then the geometry is not changed.
Anyway, it appears that pin where the wrench handle is located is the point around which the two horse hitch varies is its leverage and transfers the force to the front equalizing bar. If the two horses are out-pulling the single horse, the forward pull acts on the hypotenuse of the triangle trying to rotate it in line with the tongue. As the pull increases on the hypotenuse, a reactive force is created laterally that pushes the front bar of the parallelogram towards the single horse hitch. The triangle rotates forward and inboard slightly changing the length of the lever of each hitch relative to the center point fixed to the tongue on the rear bar of the parallelogram.
Now assuming that the horses are smarter than my dogs, when they feel more pull from the load, they will slow down changing the geometry of the rig back to the neutral state.
But then again, you already knew all that, and I filled up a page of ramblings that did not answer your question. The 16" vs the 14.5" is pretty darn close, and I suspect that the when the horses are pulling equally, the front bar maybe shifted over to the single hitch side slightly to split the difference between the 14.5" & the 16" measurement.
Doug