Howdy Bmbm40:
An interesting question. Adding a two barrel with a direct mount will immediately increase the CFM potential over a one barrel. Depending on how anemic the engine was with the OEM one barrel, a conversion to a direct mounted 300 cfm two barrel, properly tuned, on an other wise stock engine could amount to about a 10 to 15% increase in max HP. Say 100 hp to 110 or so. But, know that the other limiting factors of cam, exhaust and flow will limit potential gains. IF flow, cam, exhaust and compression are optimized the rpm curve would be raised and the potential power output from that same 300 cfm carb conversion would be significantly more-maybe as much as 25 -30%.
On the other hand, optimizing flow may not effect max power out put, but would have an effect on throttle response and efficiency. It could also make more efficient use of 200 cfm available from the one barrel, so some increase in HP would be very likely.
Keep in mind these are all guesstimates based on Dyno charts and my experiences, but guesses just the same.
In the real world, if one is going to the trouble and expense of purchasing or pulling a head to modify for a direct mount two barrel, it stands to economic reason that that is the time to do all that can be done while the head is off. A valve job gasket set is about $60.00 and the labor is labor. Which is why we have very little real world data to make the comparisons you pose. About the closest to real world would be a plan old fashioned valve job on a pretty worn out engine with burned and leaky valves. In the old days that would include a skim mill cut to true the head mating surface, recutting the valve seats with maybe a two angle cut and replacing valves, as needed and seating them. New seals were usually included. The difference to the driveability of that engine was significant. Smoother idle, better response and more power. So another issue is what you had when you started.
So, I guess, after all is said and done, given a choice of only one power adder- performance valve job or two barrel conversion, I'd have to agree with you. But, I'm too cheap and too lazy to only do one or the other.
Adios, David