The rules are, any proportional increase in capacity in similar engine designs, doing nothing else, will give exact proportional increases in torque. Increase capacity 25%, increse torque 25%.
I do aggree with Jake on the even the US 200 being better dynamically than a 250. It has a better bore to stoke ratio, a slightly better rod to stroke ratio, and less friction due to smaller main bearings. Its nice low deck, a whooping 1.67 inches lower than a 250, also allows for much less weight and better fitting in early Falcons and 'Stangs.
A post 1971 Aussie long block 200 is superior to the US 200 in trems of smoothness and rod to stroke ratio only. They run a half bread 200 block with US 250 deck height and bigger main bearings. It is close to US 250 I6 weight.
We found some interesting things in Aussie sixes. When head, block depth, cam and carb are the same, a 200 six in an 84 Falcon kicks out 121 horsepower and 177 lb-ft of torque.(Net flywheel figures on an EGR equiped engine that was calibrated to pass the USA 1973 emmisions that Aussie had back then.) When you just change the rods and crank, nothing else, there is 131 hp and 224 lb-ft from a 250. Since the 250 is 25% bigger capacity wise than the 200, you'd always expect a 25% boost in torque. Which there is...its 27% in fact. But the power only goes up a piddly 9%. The peak maximum rpm in a 250 drops to 4800 from the 5500 rpm in the Aussie 200, and that's not because the engineers were worried about pistons exploding from any exra revs!. This is because if the same head, cam and carb is used, the engine fails to breath in proportion. But some of that extra 25% you'd expect in extra power is lost in the extra side thrust from having a lousy 1.51:1 rod to sroke ratio in the 250, verses an excellent 2.01:1 in an Aussie post '71 200.Even the slightly better than lousy 1.53:1 of the US 200 would help the small six have a better specific power per cube than a 250.
On sum up, though, I'd look at the US 250 because torque rules on the street. Spend any extra dollars on getting the carb, head and exhast equalling the extra capacity!